Government Men by Gary J. Davies
CHAPTER 8
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
I must follow the people. Am I not their leader?
- Benjamin Disraeli
As his VISICOM screen faded, a tear ran down one of Ryan's cheeks. It was one of many shed over the last few days. Ryan had a dog when he was a kid, and he had promised his grandchildren a dog for Christmas. The sight of that man Bates and his dog set off his tears, plus the realization that he had just exhausted the last slim hope for the salvation of the World. He wiped his eyes, took a deep breath to compose himself, and VISICOMed the President. According to protocol, he should visit her in person, but he simply was too mentally and physically exhausted.
Elizabeth Wright, first woman President of the United States, answered. She looked exhausted herself, he thought, just as he himself and most of the staff must look. Events had occurred with surprising rapidity following the report from Dr. Janet Garb on Tuesday morning. Her observations and predictions were confirmed by that evening. Crisis teams and actions were started by midnight. By Thursday, initial analysis was complete. Now that analysis was being confirmed.
"Madam President," he began, "I'm afraid that I must report that none of our efforts has borne fruit. The situation remains completely hopeless."
Wright, like her Chief of Staff, was not a quitter. You don't become President by being a quitter. "What about NASA?" she asked.
Ryan looked grim. "As you know, the International Space Agency controls most launches, but NASA still performs most of them. Compared to the past, launches are of course very few and far between."
"Of course," interjected the President. As a senator and leading environmental advocate, she co-authored legislation reducing USA space programs to practically nothing.
Ryan continued. "As a result, very little launch capability exists. In fact, so far as we can tell, right now none exists at all.”
"But Mr. Ryan, just last month there was a successful launch of an orbital satellite!”
"Exactly, madam President. But that means that the next launch is not scheduled to occur until summer. That launch vehicle is still under construction. NASA engineers estimate that it would take three months, as a minimum, to accomplish any sort of launch."
"That's the best they can do? What about using rehabilitated defense missiles?" asked the incredulous President.
"I'm afraid the three month estimate is already based on using a rehabilitated defense missile. And actually, in my opinion, that is better than they can actually do. I've been over their schedules with them, and they make a lot of optimistic assumptions."
The President sighed. "Understandable, under the circumstances, I suppose.”
"Indeed," agreed Ryan. "But there are also other equally unsolvable problems.”
"Such as?”
"Well, I just got the report from the UN international task force on what it would take to completely demolish the asteroid. They estimate it would take between ten and a hundred thousand megatons worth of hydrogen bombs."
"That sounds like a lot.”
"It is a lot. Much more than we had at the height of the Cold War, I believe."
The President looked even more pale and grave. She was beginning to comprehend the implications.
"So," continued Ryan, "we would need the capability to immediately deliver thousands of nuclear devices, and we don't have the capability to deliver even one. Not that it matters."
"Why doesn't it matter, Mr. Ryan?”
"Because Madam President, there isn't a single nuclear bomb anywhere on Earth. Further, the International Energy Commission has ensured that there are no facilities available for their immediate production. They estimate it would take a minimum of a year to fashion a single fission triggered fusion device, and several more years to manufacture the required number of bombs."
"So in summary, Mr. Ryan," said the President, "you have concluded that the United States of America is as totally helpless as the rest of the world?"
Ryan wished more than anything that he could conclude something else. "Yes, I'm sorry Madam President, but that is the only conclusion that could be reached by us, just as it has been reached by the international agencies and the other nations involved in trying to address this crisis. We have been in contact with the UN, Russia, Japan, China, Great Britain, Germany, India, Brazil, and France. They all quickly reached very similar conclusions. Even our collective resources are totally inadequate by many months and many orders of magnitude."
"What about the other UN report, the one estimating damage?”
"I'm afraid the news there is not good either," said Ryan. "If anything, estimates of damage have been revised upward. The asteroid impact itself will have the explosive force of millions of megatons of TNT, much worse than what was threatened during the Cold War, even though most of the energy will be absorbed internally by the Earth within a few hundred miles of the impact point. They estimate that as much as 30% of the Earth's human population will die within hours. Most, and probably all others, will die within the following years. There will be massive world-wide earthquakes, tidal waves, fire storms that would cook most life, tornadoes and hurricanes of unprecedented ferocity, followed by toxic levels of atmospheric and ocean chemical pollutants and radiation, followed by months of freezing temperatures, disease, drought, torrential deluge, and world-wide plagues and famine.
"Most species of life on Earth will become extinct. The scientists call the scenario a 'great dying'; apparently such episodes have occurred on Earth with decreasing frequency and amplitude for billions of years. The last big one wiped out the dinosaurs. At best, though highly improbable, a few pockets of Homo sapiens might survive, minus most trappings of civilization. But that is felt by most experts to be highly doubtful. Some simple insects, molds, bacteria, jelly fish and so forth will surely survive but that's about it. Life on Earth will be set back by hundreds of millions of years."
It was not a pleasant thing to contemplate. After a long pause, the President brought up a new issue. "What about our efforts to contain news of the crisis?"
World leaders had decided to keep the Dannos crisis a secret. It was a position initially proposed and strongly supported by Peter Lund, Head of the National Police. It was felt that immediate panic, hysteria, and chaos would result if the impending destruction of Earth on Christmas Eve were to be made public.
"We are doing rather well on that one, according to all reports. All copies of the initial report by Dr. Garb have been tracked down and modified, adding phony information that is now being studied and refuted by the remaining scientific community. We have thereby discredited Garb and sent most researchers on a 'wild goose chase', so to speak. The deception is only temporary as they will soon collect data and come to the same conclusions as Garb, but that probably won't be seen enough to be a problem. We have quietly detained the handful of researchers that studied her original report. We will arrest Garb herself as soon as we find her.”
"On what grounds are these people being detained?" the President asked.
"Oh," explained Ryan, "a variety of trumped up charges, of course. The whole cover up could only work for a few weeks, at most. Lund assures me that the National Police can keep things quiet for the next week. After that...” Ryan paused. There was nothing more to say. For a few moments, as he was describing what was happening with the cover-up, he had forgotten that there would be no 'after that' to worry about. Millions of kids would go to bed with visions of sugar plumbs dancing in their heads, and never wake up. The Earth's crust would be smashed open like an egg-shell hit by a BB.
"And the faulty computer system that masked the problem until now?" asked the President.
Ryan was glad to change the subject. "That's still under investigation, but we have learned quite a bit so far. The programming was done by a prominent scientist named Melberg when he worked for the NASA.” The anger showed in his voice and on his face. "It had to be deliberate. For Dannos and only for Dannos, separate program logic is followed. It w
as apparently done quite cleverly. For the last seven years, astronomers all over the world have been fooled."
"Seven years!” mused the President. "But given seven years we would have had a chance!”
"Yes," said Ryan. "This man robbed us of the years we needed to save ourselves. It had to be deliberate.”
"Have you found him?" asked the President.
"Not yet, Madam President, but we have leads. In fact, I'm told by Lund that the National Police have his home and workplace under surveillance right now."
"Find him, Ryan!” urged the President. "If there's nothing else we get done in the little time we have left, I want that man!”
"Yes, Madam President. You shall have him.”
Wright knew that Ryan would get it done, if it was possible. He was the most competent man on her staff. That's why she had him heading up this whole Dannos affair. Peter Lund, the Head of the National Police, was also known to be very capable, but not at all personable, in her view. She instinctively did not trust him or like him. Ryan performed an important function as intermediary between her and Peter Lund, whenever needed.
"Anything else, Ryan?”
Ryan looked a little uncomfortable. "Well," he began tentatively, "there is one thing. Given the situation, I would like to give most of the White House staff time off for the next week. With the exception of those few working the Dannos issue, and a skeleton support staff, of course. I would tell them it's a Christmas gift from you.” He wandered if Wright would understand, as she herself was such a workaholic.
She apparently did. "Excellent idea Ryan. Do it. And Ryan?"
"Yes Madame President?”
"Take a couple days for yourself. Visit those grandchildren of yours."
"Yes Madam President, thank you.” He switched off the VISICOM and sank back deep into his chair. He felt very, very tired.
****
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
I must follow the people. Am I not their leader?
- Benjamin Disraeli
As his VISICOM screen faded, a tear ran down one of Ryan's cheeks. It was one of many shed over the last few days. Ryan had a dog when he was a kid, and he had promised his grandchildren a dog for Christmas. The sight of that man Bates and his dog set off his tears, plus the realization that he had just exhausted the last slim hope for the salvation of the World. He wiped his eyes, took a deep breath to compose himself, and VISICOMed the President. According to protocol, he should visit her in person, but he simply was too mentally and physically exhausted.
Elizabeth Wright, first woman President of the United States, answered. She looked exhausted herself, he thought, just as he himself and most of the staff must look. Events had occurred with surprising rapidity following the report from Dr. Janet Garb on Tuesday morning. Her observations and predictions were confirmed by that evening. Crisis teams and actions were started by midnight. By Thursday, initial analysis was complete. Now that analysis was being confirmed.
"Madam President," he began, "I'm afraid that I must report that none of our efforts has borne fruit. The situation remains completely hopeless."
Wright, like her Chief of Staff, was not a quitter. You don't become President by being a quitter. "What about NASA?" she asked.
Ryan looked grim. "As you know, the International Space Agency controls most launches, but NASA still performs most of them. Compared to the past, launches are of course very few and far between."
"Of course," interjected the President. As a senator and leading environmental advocate, she co-authored legislation reducing USA space programs to practically nothing.
Ryan continued. "As a result, very little launch capability exists. In fact, so far as we can tell, right now none exists at all.”
"But Mr. Ryan, just last month there was a successful launch of an orbital satellite!”
"Exactly, madam President. But that means that the next launch is not scheduled to occur until summer. That launch vehicle is still under construction. NASA engineers estimate that it would take three months, as a minimum, to accomplish any sort of launch."
"That's the best they can do? What about using rehabilitated defense missiles?" asked the incredulous President.
"I'm afraid the three month estimate is already based on using a rehabilitated defense missile. And actually, in my opinion, that is better than they can actually do. I've been over their schedules with them, and they make a lot of optimistic assumptions."
The President sighed. "Understandable, under the circumstances, I suppose.”
"Indeed," agreed Ryan. "But there are also other equally unsolvable problems.”
"Such as?”
"Well, I just got the report from the UN international task force on what it would take to completely demolish the asteroid. They estimate it would take between ten and a hundred thousand megatons worth of hydrogen bombs."
"That sounds like a lot.”
"It is a lot. Much more than we had at the height of the Cold War, I believe."
The President looked even more pale and grave. She was beginning to comprehend the implications.
"So," continued Ryan, "we would need the capability to immediately deliver thousands of nuclear devices, and we don't have the capability to deliver even one. Not that it matters."
"Why doesn't it matter, Mr. Ryan?”
"Because Madam President, there isn't a single nuclear bomb anywhere on Earth. Further, the International Energy Commission has ensured that there are no facilities available for their immediate production. They estimate it would take a minimum of a year to fashion a single fission triggered fusion device, and several more years to manufacture the required number of bombs."
"So in summary, Mr. Ryan," said the President, "you have concluded that the United States of America is as totally helpless as the rest of the world?"
Ryan wished more than anything that he could conclude something else. "Yes, I'm sorry Madam President, but that is the only conclusion that could be reached by us, just as it has been reached by the international agencies and the other nations involved in trying to address this crisis. We have been in contact with the UN, Russia, Japan, China, Great Britain, Germany, India, Brazil, and France. They all quickly reached very similar conclusions. Even our collective resources are totally inadequate by many months and many orders of magnitude."
"What about the other UN report, the one estimating damage?”
"I'm afraid the news there is not good either," said Ryan. "If anything, estimates of damage have been revised upward. The asteroid impact itself will have the explosive force of millions of megatons of TNT, much worse than what was threatened during the Cold War, even though most of the energy will be absorbed internally by the Earth within a few hundred miles of the impact point. They estimate that as much as 30% of the Earth's human population will die within hours. Most, and probably all others, will die within the following years. There will be massive world-wide earthquakes, tidal waves, fire storms that would cook most life, tornadoes and hurricanes of unprecedented ferocity, followed by toxic levels of atmospheric and ocean chemical pollutants and radiation, followed by months of freezing temperatures, disease, drought, torrential deluge, and world-wide plagues and famine.
"Most species of life on Earth will become extinct. The scientists call the scenario a 'great dying'; apparently such episodes have occurred on Earth with decreasing frequency and amplitude for billions of years. The last big one wiped out the dinosaurs. At best, though highly improbable, a few pockets of Homo sapiens might survive, minus most trappings of civilization. But that is felt by most experts to be highly doubtful. Some simple insects, molds, bacteria, jelly fish and so forth will surely survive but that's about it. Life on Earth will be set back by hundreds of millions of years."
It was not a pleasant thing to contemplate. After a long pause, the President brought up a new issue. "What about our efforts to contain news of the crisis?"
World leaders had decided to keep the Dannos crisis a secret. It was a position initially proposed and strongly supported by Peter Lund, Head of the National Police. It was felt that immediate panic, hysteria, and chaos would result if the impending destruction of Earth on Christmas Eve were to be made public.
"We are doing rather well on that one, according to all reports. All copies of the initial report by Dr. Garb have been tracked down and modified, adding phony information that is now being studied and refuted by the remaining scientific community. We have thereby discredited Garb and sent most researchers on a 'wild goose chase', so to speak. The deception is only temporary as they will soon collect data and come to the same conclusions as Garb, but that probably won't be seen enough to be a problem. We have quietly detained the handful of researchers that studied her original report. We will arrest Garb herself as soon as we find her.”
"On what grounds are these people being detained?" the President asked.
"Oh," explained Ryan, "a variety of trumped up charges, of course. The whole cover up could only work for a few weeks, at most. Lund assures me that the National Police can keep things quiet for the next week. After that...” Ryan paused. There was nothing more to say. For a few moments, as he was describing what was happening with the cover-up, he had forgotten that there would be no 'after that' to worry about. Millions of kids would go to bed with visions of sugar plumbs dancing in their heads, and never wake up. The Earth's crust would be smashed open like an egg-shell hit by a BB.
"And the faulty computer system that masked the problem until now?" asked the President.
Ryan was glad to change the subject. "That's still under investigation, but we have learned quite a bit so far. The programming was done by a prominent scientist named Melberg when he worked for the NASA.” The anger showed in his voice and on his face. "It had to be deliberate. For Dannos and only for Dannos, separate program logic is followed. It w
"Seven years!” mused the President. "But given seven years we would have had a chance!”
"Yes," said Ryan. "This man robbed us of the years we needed to save ourselves. It had to be deliberate.”
"Have you found him?" asked the President.
"Not yet, Madam President, but we have leads. In fact, I'm told by Lund that the National Police have his home and workplace under surveillance right now."
"Find him, Ryan!” urged the President. "If there's nothing else we get done in the little time we have left, I want that man!”
"Yes, Madam President. You shall have him.”
Wright knew that Ryan would get it done, if it was possible. He was the most competent man on her staff. That's why she had him heading up this whole Dannos affair. Peter Lund, the Head of the National Police, was also known to be very capable, but not at all personable, in her view. She instinctively did not trust him or like him. Ryan performed an important function as intermediary between her and Peter Lund, whenever needed.
"Anything else, Ryan?”
Ryan looked a little uncomfortable. "Well," he began tentatively, "there is one thing. Given the situation, I would like to give most of the White House staff time off for the next week. With the exception of those few working the Dannos issue, and a skeleton support staff, of course. I would tell them it's a Christmas gift from you.” He wandered if Wright would understand, as she herself was such a workaholic.
She apparently did. "Excellent idea Ryan. Do it. And Ryan?"
"Yes Madame President?”
"Take a couple days for yourself. Visit those grandchildren of yours."
"Yes Madam President, thank you.” He switched off the VISICOM and sank back deep into his chair. He felt very, very tired.
****